Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Agricultural Intensive Management and Its Influence on Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in China

The influencing mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution under intensive management is complicated. This paper adopted provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020 estimate the level management, chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) emissions emission intensity in different regions China analyze spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics. Moreover, mediation effect model spatial spillover were further explore influence on pollution. results show that (1) both showed an increasing trend, these areas with high levels are roughly consistent those high-level management. (2) At overall level, there mediating effects natural ecology, land planting rearing structure control investment between relationship pollution, among which was largest. Additionally, significant heterogeneity (3) There agglomeration characteristics a fluctuating trend “rise-decline-rise-decline”. (4) Agricultural has positive COD, TN TP However, environmental regulation could cause be transferred nearby. Scientific understanding spatio-temporal conducive providing reference for policy regulation.